If the contract isn’t something that meets the criteria for an efficient market, then yeah, it’s not something that can be used to give reasonable probabilities.

But for something like, winner of the democratic presidential primary, or the proce of gold in a month… the it’s genuinely a better predictive model than what a statistician would be able to come up with.

It doesn’t provide anything beneficial to anyone but its owners.

For statistics purposes, it gives me something incredibly beneficial. Simply by knowing the price of a contract, I can know with decent accuracy how likely something is to happen.

If you’re not in the field, you wouldn’t necessarily appreciate how valuable that is.

I third Linux mint.

Well, it’s the aggregated opinion of people who use the site. Kalshi doesn’t set the price; people making the bets set the price based on the odds others are willing to accept.

There’s a sampling bias for sure, but since the odds given for this bet are based on how much people are willing to pay for that bet, this gives a very good approximation for how people actually feel about something.

It actually ends up being more reliable than most opinion polls in that way.

For jalapeños and other peppers, the pithy center is where most of the pungency comes from. It’s also more bitter than the rear of the pepper. If you chop into quarters lengthwise, it’s easy to cut the seeds and pith away from the flesh. You’re the left with a milder, sweeter result.

… in case you’re in an experimental mood.

shit like onions and actually use some real fucking spices from India and Mexico

… but… India eats a lot of onions… because as great as the spices are, onions are also great. You can have both. You should have both.

They included the Spotify logo. It’s just <insert song here> rather than labelling the picture as “Fortunate Sons”.