It pretty obviously was, except the Brexit campaign lied about it, and claimed it would even be beneficial, because EU would be forced to accept trade with UK on similar terms, because they claimed EU needed UK more than UK needed EU.
And on top of keeping trade with EU, UK would be free to negotiate better deals with USA and many other countries.
The Brexit campaign was a lie, which even the dimmest Brit should be able to see now.
I personally warned about this, roughly estimating an economic decline of 1% per year for the foreseeable future, compared to remaining in EU. And now after 10 years the decline has been estimated at 8%.
The effect has not been a sudden collapse
This too is exactly as expected, but unfortunately the decline doesn’t seem to have leveled out yet. But I think the point where it will is not too many years into the future. But when I warned about the economic results of Brexit, I warned exactly that the harm would accumulate over many years, and probably reach about 10% in 10 years.
My estimate now is that Brexit will still have a negative effect even after 10 years, but only about half the next 10 years of what it was the first 10. So the ultimate loss will be about 12%. And from that point progress will probably be at a comparable pace to if UK had remained in EU.
8% lost economic potential is already huge, hopefully it won’t come to 12%, but I’m afraid it will, because UK remains a less attractive country to invest in than if UK was in EU, and that will inevitably slow economic growth.
It pretty obviously was, except the Brexit campaign lied about it, and claimed it would even be beneficial, because EU would be forced to accept trade with UK on similar terms, because they claimed EU needed UK more than UK needed EU.
And on top of keeping trade with EU, UK would be free to negotiate better deals with USA and many other countries.
The Brexit campaign was a lie, which even the dimmest Brit should be able to see now.
I personally warned about this, roughly estimating an economic decline of 1% per year for the foreseeable future, compared to remaining in EU. And now after 10 years the decline has been estimated at 8%.
This too is exactly as expected, but unfortunately the decline doesn’t seem to have leveled out yet. But I think the point where it will is not too many years into the future. But when I warned about the economic results of Brexit, I warned exactly that the harm would accumulate over many years, and probably reach about 10% in 10 years.
My estimate now is that Brexit will still have a negative effect even after 10 years, but only about half the next 10 years of what it was the first 10. So the ultimate loss will be about 12%. And from that point progress will probably be at a comparable pace to if UK had remained in EU.
8% lost economic potential is already huge, hopefully it won’t come to 12%, but I’m afraid it will, because UK remains a less attractive country to invest in than if UK was in EU, and that will inevitably slow economic growth.